Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers bounced back with a win last week and now host Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, but it might be Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ run game that helps them in Week 6.
Continue reading for my Cardinals vs Packers predictions and free NFL picks for Sunday, October 13th.
Cardinals vs Packers prediction
My best betPackers -5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
When Josh Jacobs signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Green Bay Packers this offseason, it was performances like last week (94 scrimmage yards, one touchdown) that both sides were hoping to materialize.
Jacobs was maybe not as efficient as he would hope (3.8 yards per carry) against what had been a porous Rams’ run defense all year, but will get a chance this week to right that wrong on an otherwise solid Sunday.
The Arizona Cardinals rank in the bottom half in rush defense DVOA which admittedly isn’t the worst mark, but given that they’ve trailed early and often this year their defense has faced a lot of expected running situations. To that point, teams have rushed for the fifth most yards per game this year against the Cardinals despite their near-average “efficiency” defending them.
Their pass defense is much worse, ranking fourth-worst by DVOA. Given Jordan Love’s willingness to uncork deep bombs to the likes of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and the returning Romeo Doubs, there should be a few that connect and help the Packers get out early.
James Conner has been the Cardinals’ most consistent and reliable offensive weapon, but has a tough matchup against a Green Bay defense that is in the top third of yardage allowed and rush defense DVOA.
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Cardinals vs Packers same-game parlay
Packers -5Jayden Reed Over 60.5 receiving yardsJames Conner Under 69.5 rushing yards
+360 at BetMGM
If we use these projected matchup edges to build out a same-game parlay, we should start with Jayden Reed.
Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs will likely compete for snaps in two-receiver sets given the latter’s one-game suspension last week for skipping practice and the former’s slew of troubling drops in his time filling in for Doubs and the injured Christian Watson.
The Cardinals have surrendered some massive lines to opposing WR1s including the likes of Brandon Aiyuk (8 receptions / 147 yards / 0 touchdowns), Terry McLaurin (7 / 52 / 1), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (7 / 75 / 1).
And as previously mentioned James Conner will likely not just run inefficiently against this Packers front seven, but also find fewer chances to do so if the Cardinals secondary lets Jordan Love jump the Packers out in front early.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cardinals vs Packers odds
Cardinals vs Packers live odds
Cardinals vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +5 | Green Bay -5
- Moneyline: Arizona +200 | Green Bay -250
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Cardinals vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both Arizona and Green Bay are 3-2 against the spread this year, but the Cardinals have covered in both of their road games this year.
- Both teams have also gone 3-2 to the Over this year, with Green Bay having gone 1-1 at home and Arizona having gone 1-1 on the road.
- Jayden Reed has gone over his receiving yard total in all but one game this year (Week 2 against the Colts).
- Jordan Love has thrown an interception in four straight regular-season starts
