The “revenge” angle doesn’t hold as much weight when it comes to NFL odds as you think.
And while revenge may be on the minds of the Jacksonville Jaguars when they face the rival Houston Texans in the Week 12 odds, it’s likely “embarrassment” is the more motivating factor.
Jacksonville is aiming to erase the shame of a 37-17 loss to Houston back in Week 3 and really right an AFC South series that has seen the Jaguars struggle against the Texans.
Going back to 2018, Jacksonville has won only once in the past 11 meetings with Houston and is a dreadful 3-8 ATS in those games.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this AFC South showdown and give my best NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Texans on November 26.
Jaguars vs Texans odds
Jaguars vs Texans predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars welcomed back receiver Zay Jones in Week 11 after he missed all but one game (Week 5) since injuring his knee back in Week 2.
Jones played 45 snaps (63%) in Jacksonville’s 34-14 beatdown of Tennessee, catching all four passes his way for a total of 20 yards.
While it wasn’t a huge individual effort from Jones, the Jags did enjoy one of their best offensive performances of the season. Head coach Doug Pederson was quick to point out Jones’ influence on the offense and isn’t capping the WR coming off the injury.
“Zay was ready to go, and he was a big part of this today,” Pederson told the press. “He played tough. He played physical. He made some catches today, and just really I think just having his presence out there opened up some other things for us, but I was proud of Zay.”
Jones and the Jaguars have a chance to build on that offensive outpouring in Week 12, taking on a Houston Texans defense that struggles to slow the pass. The Texans are 22nd in EPA per dropback allowed while giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt over the past three games.
Jones missed the first matchup with Houston in Week 3 — a stunning 37-17 loss at home — but gives Jacksonville a dangerous downfield threat in Week 12. Player projections for Sunday range for Jones but the bulk come in past his receiving yards prop of 30.5 yards.
My forecast calls for 39 yards for the veteran wideout with some models hanging a ceiling above 47 yards through the air.
With Jones healthy, his snap counts will continue to climb. He drew 62 snaps in Week 1, finishing with five catches on seven targets for 55 yards, before injuring his knee in Week 2. In the Week 5 London game, he came back for three grabs 23 yards, and a touchdown against Buffalo but left with discomfort in the second half.
“He’s just knocking off that rust, just getting back out there in game speed,” Pederson said after Week 11. “He’ll continue to get stronger, better, and more confident each week.”
My best bet: Zay Jones Over 30.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jaguars vs Texans same-game parlay
Zay Jones Over 30.5 receiving yardsCalvin Ridley Over 3.5 receptionsTrevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing TDs
+419 at FanDuel
Jones doesn’t need much to go Over this shorter total and his role in this offense will increase in his second game back.
On top of that, his presence spreads out the secondary and allows Ridley to move around and draw different looks against a bad Texans pass defense.
I also expect Trevor Lawrence to continue his hot hand with another multi-touchdown day, getting a little payback for the Week 3 loss to Houston.
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